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What will South Africa look like in 2030? And how will the next fifteen years unfold?
Since leading scenario planner Frans Cronje published his bestseller A Time Traveller’s Guide to Our Next Ten Years, the country has changed rapidly. Political tensions have increased, economic performance has weakened and more and more South Africans are taking their frustrations to the street. What does this mean for the country’s future?
Cronje presents the most likely scenarios for South Africa’s future.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces three big challenges over the next generation. It will double its population to two billion by 2045. By then more than half of Africans will be living in cities. And this group of mostly young people will be connected through mobile devices.
Properly harnessed and planned for, these are positive forces for change. Without economic growth and jobs, they could prove a political and social catastrophe. Old systems of patronage and muddling through will no longer work.
Making Africa Work is a practical account of how to ensure growth beyond commodities, and to create jobs. It’s a handbook for dynamic leadership inside and outside the continent.
Hoe gaan Suid-Afrika in 2030 lyk? En hoe gaan die volgende 15 jaar ontvou?
Sedert die bekende scenariobeplanner Frans Cronje se blitsverkoper, A Time Travellerís Guide to Our Next Ten Years, het die land dramaties verander. Politieke spanning het verhoog, die ekonomie het in die hek geduik en al meer Suid-Afrikaners wend hulle uit frustrasie straat toe.
Wat beteken dit vir die land se toekoms? Gaan die vonk in die kruitvat vlamvat of gaan ín reenboog sy onverwagse verskyning maak?
'A timely and cogent reminder that history never ends and is about to be made' - Tim Marshall, author of Prisoners of GeographyWith the world already struggling to contain conflicts on several continents, with security and defence expenditure under huge pressure, it's time to think the unthinkable and explore what might happen.As former soldiers now working in defence strategy and conflict resolution, Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson are perfectly qualified to guide us through a credible and utterly convincing 20/20 vision of the year 2020, from cyber security to weapons technology, from geopolitics to undercover operations.This book is of global importance, offering both analysis and creative solutions - essential reading both for decision-makers and everyone who simply wants to understand our future.
'A WELL-RESEARCHED AND THOUGHT-PROVOKING BOOK' Telegraph'A timely and cogent reminder that history never ends and is about to be made' - Tim Marshall, author of Prisoners of Geography'This informed and expert book examines credible scenarios of what might happen, could happen and hopefully won't happen' - Lord George Robertson, former NATO Secretary General'2020: World of War should be read by our political leaders, policy makers and horizon scanners alike' - General Sir Richard Shirreff'This expert consideration of potential conflicts will be invaluable to us all - not just the policy makers and politicians who will have to deal with those issues' - Jonathan Powell, former Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street'Knowing the unknown is the first step in making sure what we fear most doesn't happen' - Jonathan Powell, former Chief of Staff, 10 Downing StreetWith the world already struggling to contain conflicts on several continents, with security and defence expenditure under huge pressure, it's time to think the unthinkable and explore what might happen.As former soldiers now working in defence strategy and conflict resolution, Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson are perfectly qualified to guide us through a credible and utterly convincing 20/20 vision of the year 2020, from cyber security to weapons technology, from geopolitics to undercover operations.This book is of global importance, offering both analysis and creative solutions - essential reading both for decision-makers and everyone who simply wants to understand our future.
A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behaviorHalf of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe-and as financial bubbles, crashes, and crises suggest. This is one of the biggest debates in economics and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hang on the outcome. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo cuts through this debate with a new framework, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, in which rationality and irrationality coexist.Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency isn't wrong but merely incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought-a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation.A fascinating intellectual journey filled with compelling stories, Adaptive Markets starts with the origins of market efficiency and its failures, turns to the foundations of investor behavior, and concludes with practical implications-including how hedge funds have become the Galapagos Islands of finance, what really happened in the 2008 meltdown, and how we might avoid future crises.An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions in economics, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to know how markets really work.
The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.
It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. 'Good enough' forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.
Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, "Future Ready" leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast?What period should a forecast cover?How frequently should it be updated?What information should it contain?What is the best way to produce a forecast?How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?How should a forecast be used?How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?How accurate does it need to be?How should you deal with risk and uncertaintyWhat is the best way to organize a forecast process?Do you need multiple forecasts?What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?
"Future Ready" is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.
Praise for "Future Ready"
"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting
"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory
in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love
from page one"
"A timely addition to the growing research on management
planning and performance measurement."
"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the
While dozens of recent books and articles have predicted the near-certainty of China's rise to global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held assumptions. Timothy Beardson brings to light the daunting array of challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of leadership's responses. Threats to China come from many fronts, Beardson shows, and by their number and sheer weight these problems will thwart the nation's ambition to take over as the world's Number 1 power. Drawing on extensive research and experience living and working in Asia over the last 35 years, the author spells out the details of China's situation: an inexorable demographic future of remorseless aging, extreme gender disparity, a shrinking labour force, and even a falling population. Also, the nation faces social instability, a devastated environment, a low-tech economy with inadequate innovation, the absence of an effective welfare safety net, an ossified governance structure, and radical Islam lurking at the borders. Beardson's nuanced, first-hand look at China acknowledges its historic achievements while tempering predictions of its imminent hegemony with a no-nonsense dose of reality.
A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. * Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting * Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis * Combines forecasts to improve accuracy * Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.
Amy Webb is a noted futurist who combines curiosity, skepticism, colourful storytelling, and deeply reported, real-world analysis in this essential book for understanding the future. The Signals Are Talking reveals a systemic way of evaluating new ideas bubbling up on the horizon- distinguishing what is a real trend from the merely trendy. This book helps us hear which signals are talking sense, and which are simply nonsense, so that we might know today what developments- especially those seemingly random ideas at the fringe as they converge and begin to move toward the mainstream- that have long-term consequence for tomorrow. With the methodology developed in The Signals Are Talking , we learn how to think like a futurist and answer vitally important questions: How will a technology- like artificial intelligence, machine learning, self-driving cars, biohacking, bots, and the Internet of Things- affect us personally? How will it impact our businesses and workplaces? How will it eventually change the way we live, work, play, and think- and how should we prepare for it now?Most importantly, Webb persuasively shows that the future isn't something that happens to us passively. Instead, she allows us to see ahead so that we may forecast what's to come- challenging us to create our own preferred futures.
Why the global recession is in danger of becoming another Great Depression, and how we can stop it
When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In "The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy," Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.
In his previous book, "The Dollar Crisis" (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great DepressionIntroduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years aheadOffers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown
Alarming but essential reading, "The New Depression" explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.
The book focuses on three main themes: * overpopulation associated with low productivity, unemployment, persistent poverty and weak savings and investment capacity * the post-1950 development strategies and their outcomes * the institutional structures that are constraining economic and political progress. Egypt in the Twenty First Century is a much needed investigation into the long-term economic reform and restructuring and examines the challenges ahead for the country. It provides authoritative analyses from a collection of respected academics and a wealth of new data. It will appeal to all those interested in the political economy of contemporary Egypt. agriculture, industry and political systems.
The information age has brought greater interconnection across the world, and transformed the global marketplace. To remain competitive, business firms look for ways of improving their ability to gauge business and economic conditions around the world. At the same time, advances in technology have revolutionized the way we process information and prepare business and economic forecasts. Secondary data searches, data collection, data entry and analysis, graphical visualization, and reporting can all be accomplished with the help of computers that provide access to information not previously available. Forecasters should therefore learn the techniques and models involved, as applied in this new era.
Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach is intended as an applied text for students and practitioners of forecasting who have some background in economics and statistics. The presentation is conceptual in nature with emphasis on rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques. The goal of this book is to provide students and managers with an overview of a broad range of techniques and an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It is based on the assumption that forecasting skills are best developed and retained by starting with simple models, followed by repeated exposure to real world examples. The book makes extensive use of international examples to amplify concepts.
Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters.This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance.Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methodsApproaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspectiveCovers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecastsDiscusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinationsCovers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatilityFeatures numerous empirical examplesExamines the latest advances in forecast evaluationEssential for practitioners and students alike
Introduction to Econometrics provides students with clear and simple mathematics notation and step-by-step explanations of mathematical proofs, to give them a thorough understanding of the subject. Extensive exercises throughout build confidence by encouraging students to apply econometric techniques. Retaining its student-friendly approach, Introduction to Econometrics has a comprehensive revision guide to all the essential statistical concepts needed to study econometrics, additional Monte Carlo simulations, new summaries, and non-technical introductions to more advanced topics at the end of chapters. This book is supported by an Online Resource Centre, which includes: For lecturers: * Instructor's manual for the text and data sets, detailing the exercises and their solutions. * Customizable PowerPoint slides. For students: * Data sets referred to in the book. * A comprehensive study guide offers students the opportunity to gain experience with econometrics through practice with exercises. * Software manual. * PowerPoint slides with explanations.
'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional
can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an
overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict
future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to
stay one step ahead of the competition.
Originally conceived as part of a unifying vision for Europe, the euro is now viewed as a millstone around the neck of a continent crippled by vast debts, sluggish economies, and growing populist dissent. In Europe's Orphan, leading economic commentator Martin Sandbu presents a compelling defense of the euro. He argues that rather than blaming the euro for the political and economic failures in Europe since the global financial crisis, the responsibility lies firmly on the authorities of the eurozone and its member countries. The eurozone's self-inflicted financial calamities and economic decline resulted from a toxic cocktail of unforced policy errors by bankers, politicians, and bureaucrats; the unhealthy coziness between finance and governments; and, above all, an extreme unwillingness to restructure debt.Sandbu traces the origins of monetary union back to the desire for greater European unity after the Second World War. But the euro's creation coincided with a credit bubble that governments chose not to rein in. Once the crisis hit, a battle of both ideas and interests led to the failure to aggressively restructure sovereign and bank debt. Ideologically informed choices set in motion dynamics that encouraged more economic mistakes and heightened political tensions within the eurozone. Sandbu concludes that the prevailing view that monetary union can only work with fiscal and political union is wrong and dangerous-and risks sending the continent into further political paralysis and economic stagnation.Contending that the euro has been wrongfully scapegoated for the eurozone's troubles, Europe's Orphan charts what actually must be done for the continent to achieve an economic and political recovery.This revised edition contains a new preface addressing the economic and political implications of Brexit, as well as updated text throughout. Europe's Orphan charts what actually must be done for the continent to achieve a full recovery.
To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.
In Future: All That Matters, Ziauddin Sardar shows that thinking and speculating about the future has always been a part of human history, but exploring the futures in a systematic and scientific way is a recent phenomenon. What is known variously as 'futures studies', 'futurology' or 'foresight' only emerged as a discipline during the last few decades. The study of the future, however, is not only about 'predicting' or 'forecasting' the future, which is always a perilous exercise. It is also about appreciating the potentials and possibilities, as well as risks and threats, lurking over the horizon. It can enable us both to avoid the dangers as well as shape a viable and desirable future.This book explores the exciting field of futures studies, and shows how knowledge of the future is acquired and put into practice. We examine various methods for studying the future, with the emphasis not so much on predicting specific events but on delineating alternative paths to the future. We look at some celebrated readings of the future as well as case studies where exploration of the future has been used to shape policy and planning in businesses and communities, international organisations and regional institutions, and interest and lobby groups. Finally, the book suggests why and how in an increasingly complex, uncertain and diverse world, the study of the future can help people recover their agency and help them to create the world in which they wish to live. This accessible and readable book will appeal both to students and general readers, giving a fascinating introduction to thinking about the future - and what matters most about it.
A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: *Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. *Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. *Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks in readable and illuminating detail. *Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. *Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. *Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.
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