This paper emphasizes the importance of total factor productivity
(TFP) developments in the nontradables sector to quantitatively
demonstrate that the time-honored Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis does
not generally apply to episodes of economic growth. Though the
Balassa- Samuelson hypothesis postulates that strong economic
growth should, in general, be accompanied by a real appreciation in
exchange rates, this paper does not find such systematic links.
This is because some growth spurts are marked by equal TFP gains in
both the tradables and nontradables sectors, and others by larger
TFP gains in the nontradables sector.
International Monetary Fund
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