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Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior (Electronic book text)
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Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior (Electronic book text)
Serhan Cevik, Katerina Teksoz
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This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal policy behavior
and its time-varying volatility, using panel data for a broad set
of advanced and emerging market economies during the period
1990-2012. The empirical results show that discretionary fiscal
policy is influenced by policy inertia, the level of public debt,
and the output gap in both advanced and emerging market economies.
In addition, the paper finds that macro-financial factors--such as
real exchange rate, financial development, interest rates, asset
prices, and natural resource rents--and demographic and
institutional factors--such as the old-age dependency ratio, the
quality of institutions, and policy anchors such as fiscal rules
and IMF-supported stabilization programs--tend to have a
significant effect on fiscal policy behavior. The results also
indicate that higher government debt leads to more volatile fiscal
behavior, while fiscal rules and higher institutional quality
reduce the volatility of fiscal policy over time.
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