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Introduces current evolutionary game theory-where ideas from evolutionary biology and rationalistic economics meet-emphasizing the links between static and dynamic approaches and noncooperative game theory. This text introduces current evolutionary game theory-where ideas from evolutionary biology and rationalistic economics meet-emphasizing the links between static and dynamic approaches and noncooperative game theory. Much of the text is devoted to the key concepts of evolutionary stability and replicator dynamics. The former highlights the role of mutations and the latter the mechanisms of selection. Moreover, set-valued static and dynamic stability concepts, as well as processes of social evolution, are discussed. Separate background chapters are devoted to noncooperative game theory and the theory of ordinary differential equations. There are examples throughout as well as individual chapter summaries. Because evolutionary game theory is a fast-moving field that is itself branching out and rapidly evolving, Joergen Weibull has judiciously focused on clarifying and explaining core elements of the theory in an up-to-date, comprehensive, and self-contained treatment. The result is a text for second-year graduate students in economic theory, other social sciences, and evolutionary biology. The book goes beyond filling the gap between texts by Maynard-Smith and Hofbauer and Sigmund that are currently being used in the field. Evolutionary Game Theory will also serve as an introduction for those embarking on research in this area as well as a reference for those already familiar with the field. Weibull provides an overview of the developments that have taken place in this branch of game theory, discusses the mathematical tools needed to understand the area, describes both the motivation and intuition for the concepts involved, and explains why and how it is relevant to economics.
Markets are a crucial component of how people survive. Understanding how markets function and are disrupted in emergencies is critical to any analysis of hunger, and of food and livelihood security. The Emergency Market Mapping and Analysis (EMMA) techniques described in this toolkit assist frontline staff in undertaking rapid assessments of market systems in the first few weeks of a crisis. Its purpose is to improve early response planning so that resources are used effectively, and to ensure that opportunities to bolster future recovery in the local economy are not missed. This toolkit can help prevent lasting damage to the livelihoods, jobs and businesses on which people s long-term security depends. EMMA assumes limited previous experience of economic or market analysis. Instead, the focus is on simple visual, graphical and largely qualitative ways of describing the impact of emergencies on people and on the critical market systems upon which they most rely. "The Emergency Market Mapping Analysis Toolkit" is designed for generalists, as well as specialist staff working in the food security, shelter, water and sanitation sectors. The author takes readers through ten practical steps in order that they can both understand the important market aspects of an emergency situation, and are able to communicate this knowledge promptly and effectively to decision-makers. The toolkit contains a CD-ROM with an electronic version of the toolkit, supplementary reading, and associated training materials."
For more than 25 years, Pocket World in Figures has been informing and entertaining readers around the world with its blend of the serious, the quirky and the downright surprising.
Where else would you find out, in a single volume, that 98% of Suriname is forest, that Switzerland sells the most expensive Big Macs or that the Norway spends the most per person on music downloads?
The 2018 edition includes data from over 180 countries, presented in a series of rankings and country profiles. The rankings cover subjects as diverse as geography and demographics, business, economics and finance, health and welfare, culture and entertainment. Updated, revised and expanded each year to include new rankings and features, it also includes detailed statistical profiles of more than 65 of the world's major economies, the euro area and the world itself.
And, once again, the 2018 edition will showcase the Economist's strength in data journalism by including charts and graphs, and will invite readers to test their knowledge with its world rankings quiz, making the book an indispensable - and entertaining - guide to the world in figures.
The estimation and the validation of the Basel II risk parameters PD (default probability), LGD (loss given fault), and EAD (exposure at default) is an important problem in banking practice. These parameters are used on the one hand as inputs to credit portfolio models and in loan pricing frameworks, on the other to compute regulatory capital according to the new Basel rules. This book covers the state-of-the-art in designing and validating rating systems and default probability estimations. Furthermore, it presents techniques to estimate LGD and EAD and includes a chapter on stress testing of the Basel II risk parameters. The second edition is extended by three chapters explaining how the Basel II risk parameters can be used for building a framework for risk-adjusted pricing and risk management of loans.
A guide to economics, statistics and finance that explores the mathematical foundations underling econometric methods An Introduction to Econometric Theory offers a text to help in the mastery of the mathematics that underlie econometric methods and includes a detailed study of matrix algebra and distribution theory. Designed to be an accessible resource, the text explains in clear language why things are being done, and how previous material informs a current argument. The style is deliberately informal with numbered theorems and lemmas avoided. However, very few technical results are quoted without some form of explanation, demonstration or proof. The author -- a noted expert in the field -- covers a wealth of topics including: simple regression, basic matrix algebra, the general linear model, distribution theory, the normal distribution, properties of least squares, unbiasedness and efficiency, eigenvalues, statistical inference in regression, t and F tests, the partitioned regression, specification analysis, random regressor theory, introduction to asymptotics and maximum likelihood. Each of the chapters is supplied with a collection of exercises, some of which are straightforward and others more challenging. This important text: Presents a guide for teaching econometric methods to undergraduate and graduate students of economics, statistics or finance Offers proven classroom-tested material Contains sets of exercises that accompany each chapter Includes a companion website that hosts additional materials, solution manual and lecture slides Written for undergraduates and graduate students of economics, statistics or finance, An Introduction to Econometric Theory is an essential beginner's guide to the underpinnings of econometrics.
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.
The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory.
Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications
This book provides a comprehensive but concise treatment of the subject of derivatives. It focuses on making essential concepts accessible to a wider audience. The book eschews complicated mathematics and high school level mathematics is sufficient to understand it. It describes and explains various derivative instruments, their use and pricing, and the functioning of derivative markets. It uses a large number of examples to elucidate concepts and illustrate their real-life application. A distinguishing feature of the book is that it goes beyond the narrow perspective of derivative traders and investors and takes a broader approach which enhances its appeal to a range of readers. This book will be useful for students in the fields of economics, econometrics, derivatives, and finance and financial professionals, bankers and investors.
The book aims at perfecting the national governance system and improving national governance ability. It evaluates the balance sheets of the state and residents, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and the central bank, the central government, local government and external sectors - the goal being to provide a systematic analysis of the characteristics and trajectory of China's economic expansion and structural adjustment, as well as objective assessments of short and long-term economic operations, debt risks and financial risks with regard to the institutional and structural characteristics of economic development in market-oriented reform. It puts forward a preliminary analysis of China's national and sectoral balance sheets on the basis of scientific estimates of various kinds of data, analyzes from a new perspective the major issues that are currently troubling China - development sustainability, government transformation, local government debt, welfare reform, and the financial opening-up and stability - and explores corresponding policies, measures, and institutional arrangements.
Enders continues to provide business professionals with an accessible introduction to time-series analysis. Clearly shows them how to develop models capable of forecasting, interpreting, and testing hypotheses concerning economic data using the latest techniques.Includes new discussions on parameter instability and structural breaks as well as out-of-sample forecasting methods.New developments in unit root test and cointegration tests are covered. Multivariate GARCH models are also presented. In addition, several statistical examples have been updated with real-world data to help business professionals understand the relevance of the material
"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By
Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately
what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic
Methods and perspectives to model and measure productivity and efficiency have made a number of important advances in the last decade. Using the standard and innovative formulations of the theory and practice of efficiency and productivity measurement, Robin C. Sickles and Valentin Zelenyuk provide a comprehensive approach to productivity and efficiency analysis, covering its theoretical underpinnings and its empirical implementation, paying particular attention to the implications of neoclassical economic theory. A distinct feature of the book is that it presents a wide array of theoretical and empirical methods utilized by researchers and practitioners who study productivity issues. An accompanying website includes methods, programming codes that can be used with widely available software like MATLAB (R) and R, and test data for many of the productivity and efficiency estimators discussed in the book. It will be valuable to upper-level undergraduates, graduate students, and professionals.
This book provides an up-to-date series of advanced chapters on applied financial econometric techniques pertaining the various fields of commodities finance, mathematics & stochastics, international macroeconomics and financial econometrics. Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling: Volume 2 provides a key repository on the current state of knowledge, the latest debates and recent literature on financial mathematics, volatility and covariance modelling. The first section is devoted to mathematical finance, stochastic modelling and control optimization. Chapters explore the recent financial crisis, the increase of uncertainty and volatility, and propose an alternative approach to deal with these issues. The second section covers financial volatility and covariance modelling and explores proposals for dealing with recent developments in financial econometrics This book will be useful to students and researchers in applied econometrics; academics and students seeking convenient access to an unfamiliar area. It will also be of great interest established researchers seeking a single repository on the current state of knowledge, current debates and relevant literature.
Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance explores the latest developments in the analysis and modeling of economic and financial data. Well-recognized econometric experts discuss the rapidly growing research in economics and finance and offer insight on the future direction of these fields. Focusing on micro models, the first group of chapters describes the statistical issues involved in the analysis of econometric models with cross-sectional data often arising in microeconomics. The book then illustrates time series models that are extensively used in empirical macroeconomics and finance. The last set of chapters explores the types of panel data and spatial models that are becoming increasingly significant in analyzing complex economic behavior and policy evaluations. This handbook brings together both background material and new methodological and applied results that are extremely important to the current and future frontiers in empirical economics and finance. It emphasizes inferential issues that transpire in the analysis of cross-sectional, time series, and panel data-based empirical models in economics, finance, and related disciplines.
This book contains a set of notes prepared by Ragnar Frisch for a lecture series that he delivered at Yale University in 1930. The lecture notes provide not only a valuable source document for the history of econometrics, but also a more systematic introduction to some of Frisch's key methodological ideas than his other works so far published in various media for the econometrics community. In particular, these notes contain a number of prescient ideas precursory to some of the most important notions developed in econometrics during the 1970s and 1980s More remarkably, Frisch demonstrated a deep understanding of what econometric or statistical analysis could achieve under the situation where there lacked known correct theoretical models. This volume has been rigorously edited and comes with an introductory essay from Olav Bjerkholt and Duo Qin placing the notes in their historical context.
Build valuable skills that are in high demand in today's businesses with BUSINESS ANALYTICS, 3E. You master the full range of analytics as you strengthen your descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytic skills. Real-world examples and visuals help illustrate data and results for each topic. Clear, step-by-step instructions for various software programs, including Microsoft Excel, Analytic Solver, and JMP Pro, teach you how to perform the analyses discussed. Practical, relevant problems at all levels of difficulty further help you apply what you've learned to succeed in your course.
The development of economics changed dramatically during the twentieth century with the emergence of econometrics, macroeconomics and a more scientific approach in general. One of the key individuals in the transformation of economics was Ragnar Frisch, professor at the University of Oslo and the first Nobel Laureate in economics in 1969. He was a co-founder of the Econometric Society in 1930 (after having coined the word econometrics in 1926) and edited the journal Econometrics for twenty-two years. The discovery of the manuscripts of a series of eight lectures given by Frisch at the Henri Poincar Institute in March April 1933 on The Problems and Methods of Econometrics will enable economists to more fully understand his overall vision of econometrics.
This book is a rare exhibition of Frisch 's overview on econometrics and is published here in English for the first time. Edited and with an introduction by Olav Bjerkholt and Ariane Dupont-Kieffer, Frisch 's eight lectures provide an accessible and astute discussion of econometric issues from philosophical foundations to practical procedures.
Concerning the development of economics in the twentieth century and the broader visions about economic science in general and econometrics in particular held by Ragnar Frisch, this book will appeal to anyone with an interest in the history of economics and econometrics.
MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS (R) is a new edition of Bob Clemen's best-selling title, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straightforward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools (R) software by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools (R). This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students in business and engineering.
This monthly compendium of statistics and articles on the UK economy contains data on UK economic accounts, prices, labour market, output and demand indicators, selected financial statistics, gross domestic product, consumer and wholesale price indices, households' final consumption expenditure, final expenditure prices index, visible and invisible trade balance, earnings, and regional and international economic indicators. Includes articles on national accounting, trade, wider economic issues, research and development statistics and international comparisons. From October 1998 the national accounts data in Economic Trends is consistent with the European System of Accounts (ESA 95) This issue includes: Public Service Productivity: health - estimates of the change in productivity expenditure on health using National Accounts data from 1995 to 2003, by Phillip Lee Health Expenditure by Charities - a description of the functional and provider breakdown of charitable expenditure on health in the UK for 2002, by Gavin Wallis
This monthly compendium of statistics and articles on the UK economy contains data on UK economic accounts, prices, labour market, output and demand indicators, selected financial statistics, gross domestic product, consumer and wholesale price indices, households' final consumption expenditure, final expenditure prices index, visible and invisible trade balance, earnings, and regional and international economic indicators. Includes articles on national accounting, trade, wider economic issues, research and development statistics and international comparisons. From October 1998 the national accounts data in Economic Trends is consistent with the European System of Accounts (ESA 95) This issue includes: The impact of UK households on the environment: a presentation of a regional breakdown of greenhouse gas emissions directly and indirectly generated by UK households, by Perry Frances Input-Output Analysis; Creative sector, 1992-2002 - detailed information and statistics covering the UK Creative Sector, based on the Input-Output Annual Supply and Use Tables, by Sanjiv Manhajan
A common set of mathematical tools underlies dynamic optimization, dynamic estimation, and filtering. In Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies, Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas Sargent use these tools to create a class of econometrically tractable models of prices and quantities. They present examples from microeconomics, macroeconomics, and asset pricing. The models are cast in terms of a representative consumer. While Hansen and Sargent demonstrate the analytical benefits acquired when an analysis with a representative consumer is possible, they also characterize the restrictiveness of assumptions under which a representative household justifies a purely aggregative analysis. Hansen and Sargent unite economic theory with a workable econometrics while going beyond and beneath demand and supply curves for dynamic economies. They construct and apply competitive equilibria for a class of linear-quadratic-Gaussian dynamic economies with complete markets. Their book, based on the 2012 Gorman lectures, stresses heterogeneity, aggregation, and how a common structure unites what superficially appear to be diverse applications. An appendix describes MATLAB programs that apply to the book's calculations.
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This open access book offers something for everyone working with market segmentation: practical guidance for users of market segmentation solutions; organisational guidance on implementation issues; guidance for market researchers in charge of collecting suitable data; and guidance for data analysts with respect to the technical and statistical aspects of market segmentation analysis. Even market segmentation experts will find something new, including an approach to exploring data structure and choosing a suitable number of market segments, and a vast array of useful visualisation techniques that make interpretation of market segments and selection of target segments easier. The book talks the reader through every single step, every single potential pitfall, and every single decision that needs to be made to ensure market segmentation analysis is conducted as well as possible. All calculations are accompanied not only with a detailed explanation, but also with R code that allows readers to replicate any aspect of what is being covered in the book using R, the open-source environment for statistical computing and graphics.
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