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Monthly Digest of Statistics provides the latest monthly and quarterly statistics for UK businesses, economy and society. An important reference work, it is an indispensable source of statistics covering 20 topics: National Accounts, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Population and Vital Statistics; Labour Market; Social Services; Law Enforcement; Agriculture, Food, Drinks and Tobacco; Production, Output and Costs; Energy; Chemicals; Metals, Engineering and Vehicles; Textiles and Other Manufactures; Construction; Transport; Retailing; External Trade in Goods; UK Balance of Payments; Government Finance; Prices and Wages i.e. Retail Prices Index (RPI); Leisure; Weather
" …deals rigorously with many of the problems that have bedevilled the subject up to the present time…" — Stephen Pollock, Econometric Theory
"I continued to be pleasantly surprised by the variety and usefulness of its contents " — Isabella Verdinelli, Journal of the American Statistical Association
Continuing the success of their first edition, Magnus and Neudecker present an exhaustive and self-contained revised text on matrix theory and matrix differential calculus. Matrix calculus has become an essential tool for quantitative methods in a large number of applications, ranging from social and behavioural sciences to econometrics. While the structure and successful elements of the first edition remain, this revised and updated edition contains many new examples and exercises.
In the past few decades, methods of linear algebra have become
central to economic analysis, replacing older tools such as the
calculus. David Gale has provided the first complete and lucid
treatment of important topics in mathematical economics which can
be analyzed by linear models. This self-contained work requires few
mathematical prerequisites and provides all necessary groundwork in
the first few chapters. After introducing basic geometric concepts
of vectors and vector spaces, Gale proceeds to give the main
theorems on linear inequalities--theorems underpinning the theory
of games, linear programming, and the Neumann model of growth. He
then explores such subjects as linear programming; the theory of
two-person games; static and dynamic theories of linear exchange
models, including problems of equilibrium prices and dynamic
stability; and methods of play, optimal strategies, and solutions
of matrix games. This book should prove an invaluable reference
source and text for mathematicians, engineers, economists, and
those in many related areas.
A properly structured financial model can provide decision makers with a powerful planning tool that helps them identify the consequences of their decisions before they are put into practice. Introduction to Financial Models for Management and Planning, Second Edition enables professionals and students to learn how to develop and use computer-based models for financial planning. This volume provides critical tools for the financial toolbox, then shows how to use them tools to build successful models.
The aim of this book is to analyze the relationship between renewable energy sources and citizens, focusing both on demand and supply. Today, the consequences regarding the use of fossil energy are seen from a different perspective because the issues related to climate change are evident worldwide. Thus, climate change and resource depletion are real problems to be addressed for the welfare of society. Renewable energy sources (RES) are essential to reduce polluting emissions, but they can produce a range of environmental effects which might be detrimental to human activities as attested by the several types of the Nimby effect ("Not In My Back Yard"). This is because infrastructure siting usually offers different pros and cons to stakeholders and the local populations affected. Nevertheless empirical evidence shows that in many countries, society is willing to pay a significant amount to facilitate adoption of renewable technologies. With RES, citizens are called on to play a dual role - not only that of end consumers but often also stakeholders in the local production process. In this book we try to deal with this dual role played by the citizens to evaluate the actual public acceptance of RES. We address a specific and important area of the economic analysis: willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept (WTA). The research evaluates the attitude of citizens towards the end use of green energy by investigating the likelihood of acceptance of a new infrastructures related to RES production. The book, therefore, is not about how to reconcile consumers and citizens, rather it explores the main determinants of peoples' behavior for a better understanding of this phenomenon.
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This open access book offers something for everyone working with market segmentation: practical guidance for users of market segmentation solutions; organisational guidance on implementation issues; guidance for market researchers in charge of collecting suitable data; and guidance for data analysts with respect to the technical and statistical aspects of market segmentation analysis. Even market segmentation experts will find something new, including an approach to exploring data structure and choosing a suitable number of market segments, and a vast array of useful visualisation techniques that make interpretation of market segments and selection of target segments easier. The book talks the reader through every single step, every single potential pitfall, and every single decision that needs to be made to ensure market segmentation analysis is conducted as well as possible. All calculations are accompanied not only with a detailed explanation, but also with R code that allows readers to replicate any aspect of what is being covered in the book using R, the open-source environment for statistical computing and graphics.
This book introduces a new approach in the field of macroeconomic inventory studies: the use of multivariate statistics to evaluate long-term characteristics of inventory investments in developed countries. By analyzing a 44-year period series of annual inventory change in percentage of GDP in a set of OECD countries, disclosing their relationship to growth, industry structure and alternative uses of GDP (fixed capital investments, foreign trade and consumption), it fills a gap in the economic literature. It is generally accepted that inventories play an important role in all levels of the economy. However, while there is extensive literature on micro- (and even item-) level inventory problems, macroeconomic inventory studies are scarce. Both the long-term processes of inventory formation and their correlation with other macroeconomic factors provide interesting conclusions about economic changes and policies in our immediate past, and present important insights for the future.
This book explains how and where copper and fossil fuels were formed and the likely future for the extraction of copper and coal. The colourful chronology of our efforts to extract metals from minerals and energy from fossil fuels is presented from earliest times until the present day. The difficult concept of human sustainability is examined in the context of continually decreasing real prices of energy and metals. This book integrates the latest findings on our historic use of technology to continually produce cheaper metals even though ore grades have been decreasing. Furthermore, it shows that the rate of technological improvement must increase if metals are to be produced even more cheaply in the future.
Building on the success of Abadir and Magnus' Matrix Algebra in the Econometric Exercises Series, Statistics serves as a bridge between elementary and specialized statistics. Professors Abadir, Heijmans, and Magnus freely use matrix algebra to cover intermediate to advanced material. Each chapter contains a general introduction, followed by a series of connected exercises which build up knowledge systematically. The characteristic feature of the book (and indeed the series) is that all exercises are fully solved. The authors present many new proofs of established results, along with new results, often involving shortcuts that resort to statistical conditioning arguments.
Human beings are competitive. We want to know who is the strongest, who is the richest, and who is the cleverest of all. Some situations, like ranking people based on height, can be ranked in objective ways. However, many "Top Ten" lists are based on subjective categorization and give only the illusion of objectivity. In fact, we don't always want to be seen objectively since we don't mind having a better image or rank than deserved. Ranking: The Unwritten Rules of the Social Game We All Play applies scientific theories to everyday experience by raising and answering questions like: Are college ranking lists objective? How do we rank and rate countries based on their fragility, level of corruption, or even happiness? How do we find the most relevant web pages? How are employees ranked? This book is for people who have a neighbor with a fancier car; employees, who are being ranked by their supervisors; managers, who are involved in ranking but may have qualms about the process; businesspeople interested in creating better visibility for their companies; scientists, writers, artists, and other competitors who would like to see themselves at the top of a success list; or college students who are just preparing to enter a new phase of social competition. Readers will engage in an intellectual adventure to better understand the difficulties of navigating between objectivity and subjectivity and to better identify and modify their place in real and virtual communities by combining human and computational intelligence.
This introductory statistics textbook conveys the essential concepts and tools needed to develop and nurture statistical thinking. It presents descriptive, inductive and explorative statistical methods and guides the reader through the process of quantitative data analysis. In the experimental sciences and interdisciplinary research, data analysis has become an integral part of any scientific study. Issues such as judging the credibility of data, analyzing the data, evaluating the reliability of the obtained results and finally drawing the correct and appropriate conclusions from the results are vital. The text is primarily intended for undergraduate students in disciplines like business administration, the social sciences, medicine, politics, macroeconomics, etc. It features a wealth of examples, exercises and solutions with computer code in the statistical programming language R as well as supplementary material that will enable the reader to quickly adapt all methods to their own applications.
The volatility of financial returns changes over time and, for the last thirty years, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have provided the principal means of analyzing, modeling, and monitoring such changes. Taking into account that financial returns typically exhibit heavy tails that is, extreme values can occur from time to time Andrew Harvey's new book shows how a small but radical change in the way GARCH models are formulated leads to a resolution of many of the theoretical problems inherent in the statistical theory. The approach can also be applied to other aspects of volatility, such as those arising from data on the range of returns and the time between trades. Furthermore, the more general class of Dynamic Conditional Score models extends to robust modeling of outliers in the levels of time series and to the treatment of time-varying relationships. As such, there are applications not only to financial data but also to macroeconomic time series and to time series in other disciplines. The statistical theory draws on basic principles of maximum likelihood estimation and, by doing so, leads to an elegant and unified treatment of nonlinear time-series modeling. The practical value of the proposed models is illustrated by fitting them to real data sets."
This book addresses the disparities that arise when measuring and modeling societal behavior and progress across the social sciences. It looks at why and how different disciplines and even researchers can use the same data and yet come to different conclusions about equality of opportunity, economic and social mobility, poverty and polarization, and conflict and segregation. Because societal behavior and progress exist only in the context of other key aspects, modeling becomes exponentially more complex as more of these aspects are factored into considerations. The content of this book transcends disciplinary boundaries, providing valuable information on measuring and modeling to economists, sociologists, and political scientists who are interested in data-based analysis of pressing social issues.
This textbook provides a coherent introduction to the main concepts and methods of one-parameter statistical inference. Intended for students of Mathematics taking their first course in Statistics, the focus is on Statistics for Mathematicians rather than on Mathematical Statistics. The goal is not to focus on the mathematical/theoretical aspects of the subject, but rather to provide an introduction to the subject tailored to the mindset and tastes of Mathematics students, who are sometimes turned off by the informal nature of Statistics courses. This book can be used as the basis for an elementary semester-long first course on Statistics with a firm sense of direction that does not sacrifice rigor. The deeper goal of the text is to attract the attention of promising Mathematics students.
In Mathematical Finance, the authors consider a mathematical model for the pricing of emissions permits. The model has particular applicability to the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) but could also be used to consider the modeling of other cap-and-trade schemes. As a response to the risk of Climate Change, carbon markets are currently being implemented in regions worldwide and already represent more than $30 billion. However, scientific, and particularly mathematical, studies of these carbon markets are needed in order to expose their advantages and shortcomings, as well as allow their most efficient implementation. This Brief reviews mathematical properties such as the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the pricing problem, stability of solutions and their behavior. These fit into the theory of fully coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) with irregular coefficients. The authors present a numerical algorithm to compute the solution to these non-standard FBSDEs. They also carry out a case study of the UK energy market. This involves estimating the parameters to be used in the model using historical data and then solving a pricing problem using the aforementioned numerical algorithm. The Brief is of interest to researchers in stochastic processes and their applications, and environmental and energy economics. Most sections are also accessible to practitioners in the energy sector and climate change policy-makers.
MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS (R) is a new edition of Bob Clemen's best-selling title, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straightforward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools (R) software by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools (R). This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students in business and engineering.
This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit theorems) are described under SRD; mixing and weak dependence are also reviewed. In closing, it describes moment techniques together with their relations to cumulant sums as well as an application to kernel type estimation.The appendix reviews basic probability theory facts and discusses useful laws stemming from the Gaussian laws as well as the basic principles of probability, and is completed by R-scripts used for the figures. Richly illustrated with examples and simulations, the book is recommended for advanced master courses for mathematicians just entering the field of time series, and statisticians who want more mathematical insights into the background of non-linear time series.
The series is designed to bring together those mathematicians who are seriously interested in getting new challenging stimuli from economic theories with those economists who are seeking effective mathematical tools for their research. A lot of economic problems can be formulated as constrained optimizations and equilibration of their solutions. Various mathematical theories have been supplying economists with indispensable machineries for these problems arising in economic theory. Conversely, mathematicians have been stimulated by various mathematical difficulties raised by economic theories.
This book provides an up-to-date series of advanced chapters on applied financial econometric techniques pertaining the various fields of commodities finance, mathematics & stochastics, international macroeconomics and financial econometrics. International Financial Markets: Volume I provides a key repository on the current state of knowledge, the latest debates and recent literature on international financial markets. Against the background of the "financialization of commodities" since the 2008 sub-primes crisis, section one contains recent contributions on commodity and financial markets, pushing the frontiers of applied econometrics techniques. The second section is devoted to exchange rate and current account dynamics in an environment characterized by large global imbalances. Part three examines the latest research in the field of meta-analysis in economics and finance. This book will be useful to students and researchers in applied econometrics; academics and students seeking convenient access to an unfamiliar area. It will also be of great interest established researchers seeking a single repository on the current state of knowledge, current debates and relevant literature.
Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. Focuses on the recent subfield of decision analysis, ARA Compares ideas from decision theory and game theory Uses multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) throughout to help readers visualize complex information structures Applies the ARA approach to simultaneous games, auctions, sequential games, and defend-attack games Contains an extended case study based on a real application in railway security, which provides a blueprint for how to perform ARA in similar security situations Includes exercises at the end of most chapters, with selected solutions at the back of the book The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on all unknown quantities. This produces a distribution over the actions of the opponent and enables analysts to maximize their expected utilities.
The role of franchising on industry evolution is explored in this book both in terms of the emergence of franchising and its impact on industry structure. Examining literature and statistical information the first section provides an overview of franchising. The Role of Franchising on Industry Evolution then focuses on two core elements; the emergence or franchising and the contextual drivers prompting its adoption, and the impact of franchising on industry-level structural changes. Through two industry case studies, the author demonstrates how franchising has the ability to fundamentally transform an industry's structure from one of fragmentation to one of consolidation.
The book provides a description of the process of health economic evaluation and modelling for cost-effectiveness analysis, particularly from the perspective of a Bayesian statistical approach. Some relevant theory and introductory concepts are presented using practical examples and two running case studies. The book also describes in detail how to perform health economic evaluations using the R package BCEA (Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis). BCEA can be used to post-process the results of a Bayesian cost-effectiveness model and perform advanced analyses producing standardised and highly customisable outputs. It presents all the features of the package, including its many functions and their practical application, as well as its user-friendly web interface. The book is a valuable resource for statisticians and practitioners working in the field of health economics wanting to simplify and standardise their workflow, for example in the preparation of dossiers in support of marketing authorisation, or academic and scientific publications.
A new edition of a comprehensive undergraduate mathematics text for economics students. This text offers a comprehensive presentation of the mathematics required to tackle problems in economic analyses. To give a better understanding of the mathematical concepts, the text follows the logic of the development of mathematics rather than that of an economics course. The only prerequisite is high school algebra, but the book goes on to cover all the mathematics needed for undergraduate economics. It is also a useful reference for graduate students. After a review of the fundamentals of sets, numbers, and functions, the book covers limits and continuity, the calculus of functions of one variable, linear algebra, multivariate calculus, and dynamics. To develop the student's problem-solving skills, the book works through a large number of examples and economic applications. This streamlined third edition offers an array of new and updated examples. Additionally, lengthier proofs and examples are provided on the book's website. The book and the web material are cross-referenced in the text. A student solutions manual is available, and instructors can access online instructor's material that includes solutions and PowerPoint slides. Visit http://mitpress.mit.edu/math_econ3 for complete details.
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