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What will South Africa look like in 2030? And how will the next fifteen years unfold?
Since leading scenario planner Frans Cronje published his bestseller A Time Traveller’s Guide to Our Next Ten Years, the country has changed rapidly. Political tensions have increased, economic performance has weakened and more and more South Africans are taking their frustrations to the street. What does this mean for the country’s future?
Cronje presents the most likely scenarios for South Africa’s future.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces three big challenges over the next generation. It will double its population to two billion by 2045. By then more than half of Africans will be living in cities. And this group of mostly young people will be connected through mobile devices.
Properly harnessed and planned for, these are positive forces for change. Without economic growth and jobs, they could prove a political and social catastrophe. Old systems of patronage and muddling through will no longer work.
Making Africa Work is a practical account of how to ensure growth beyond commodities, and to create jobs. It’s a handbook for dynamic leadership inside and outside the continent.
Hoe gaan Suid-Afrika in 2030 lyk? En hoe gaan die volgende 15 jaar ontvou?
Sedert die bekende scenariobeplanner Frans Cronje se blitsverkoper, A Time Travellerís Guide to Our Next Ten Years, het die land dramaties verander. Politieke spanning het verhoog, die ekonomie het in die hek geduik en al meer Suid-Afrikaners wend hulle uit frustrasie straat toe.
Wat beteken dit vir die land se toekoms? Gaan die vonk in die kruitvat vlamvat of gaan ín reenboog sy onverwagse verskyning maak?
A revelatory and entertaining book about the pitfalls of how we measure our economy and how to correct them, by an award-winning editor of The Financial Times 'A near miracle' Ha-Joon Chang, author of 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism In The Growth Delusion, author and prize-winning journalist David Pilling explores how economists and their cult of growth have hijacked our policy-making and infiltrated our thinking about what makes societies work. Our policies are geared relentlessly towards increasing our standard measure of growth, Gross Domestic Product. By this yardstick we have never been wealthier or happier. So why doesn't it feel that way? Why are we living in such fractured times, with global populism on the rise and wealth inequality as stark as ever? In a book that is simultaneously trenchant, thought-provoking and entertaining, Pilling argues that we need to measure our successes and failures using different criteria. While for economic growth, heroin consumption and prostitution are worth more than volunteer work or public services, in a rational world we would learn how to value what makes economies better, not just what makes them bigger. So much of what is important to our wellbeing, from clean air to safe streets and from steady jobs to sound minds, lies outside the purview of our standard measure of success. We prioritise growth maximisation without stopping to think about the costs. In prose that cuts through the complex language so often wielded by a priesthood of economists, Pilling argues that our steadfast loyalty to growth is informing misguided policies - and contributing to a rising mistrust of experts that is shaking the very foundations of our democracy.
*Longlisted for the FT/McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award*
*Financial Times Book of the Month*
The full-time job is disappearing. Today more workers than ever are going freelance – driving for Uber or cycling for Deliveroo, developing software or consulting for investment banks. Welcome to the gig economy.
In Gigged, Sarah Kessler meets the people forging this new world of unorthodox employment: from the computer programmer who chooses exactly which hours he works each week, via the Uber driver who is trying to convince his peers to unionise, to the charity worker who thinks freelance gigs might just transform the fortunes of a declining rural town.
Their stories raise crucial questions about the future of work. What happens when job security, holidays and benefits become a thing of the past? How can freelancers find meaningful, well-paid employment? And could the gig economy really change the world of work for ever?
The instant New York Times bestseller from legendary investment guru Ric Edelman, who presents a prescient personal finance guide on how technology and science will reshape the way we save, invest, and plan for the future.
In The Truth About Your Future, award-winning financial advisor Ric Edelman reveals how technology and science are evolving at a blistering, almost incomprehensible pace--with profound implications for your personal finances. Ric radically upends traditional financial planning, showing that you need not just one financial plan, but three--one for now, one for later and one for much later. He explains: Why you're likely to live much longer--and the impact on your financial future; how you must alter your plans to shift from the familiar linear lifeline (school-job-retirement-death) to the new cyclical lifeline; the importance of Career Planning--even if you're in your fifties or sixties; how to invest in tech companies and how to generate income from your investments; why nursing homes are becoming obsolete--and with them, long-term care insurance policies, and what this means for you; how to protect your digital assets; and how you'll spend your time--and money--in retirement, and why the future will be the happiest time of your life.
The traditional paradigms of how we live, learn, and invest are shifting under our feet. Fortunately, Ric Edelman has seen the future, and in The Truth About Your Future he illustrates how smart investors can adapt and thrive in today's changing marketplace. Newcomers and loyal Edelman followers alike will find value in his proven advice and trademark humor. This is a must-have guide for anyone serious about successfully adapting to the ever-evolving financial landscape.
A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe--and as financial bubbles, crashes, and crises suggest. This is one of the biggest debates in economics and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hang on the outcome. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo cuts through this debate with a new framework, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, in which rationality and irrationality coexist. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency isn't wrong but merely incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought--a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. A fascinating intellectual journey filled with compelling stories, Adaptive Markets starts with the origins of market efficiency and its failures, turns to the foundations of investor behavior, and concludes with practical implications--including how hedge funds have become the Galapagos Islands of finance, what really happened in the 2008 meltdown, and how we might avoid future crises. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions in economics, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to know how markets really work.
The economic concepts presented in Managerial Economics show you how to use common sense to understand business and solve managerial problems. This innovative text helps you sharpen your economic intuition. With its unique integrative approach, the text demonstrates that important business decisions are interdisciplinary, illustrating how different functions work together. A basic valuation model is constructed and used as the underlying economic model of the firm; each topic is then related to an element of the value maximization model - a process that shows how management integrates accounting, finance, marketing, personnel and production functions. The text also provides an intuitive guide to marginal analysis and basic economic relations.
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
A hard-hitting analysis of the future of the global economy and what it means for the Western way of life In this vividly written and compellingly argued book, economist Stephen D. King suggests that the decades ahead will see a major redistribution of wealth and power across the globe that will force consumers in the United States and Europe to stop living beyond their means. "In this intellectually stimulating and excellently written book, Stephen King explores the implications of the end of western hegemony for the ability of the erstwhile rulers of the world to sustain their standards of living. The rising competition from new players and the growing scarcity of resources will, he argues, squeeze the west hard. It will have to adapt. It will not find it easy to do so."--Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times
The global financial crisis has reopened discussion surrounding the use of appropriate theoretical financial frameworks to reflect the current economic climate. There is a need for more sophisticated analytical concepts which take into account current quantitative changes and unprecedented turbulence in the financial markets. This book provides a comprehensive guide to the quantitative analysis of high frequency financial data in the light of current events and contemporary issues, using the latest empirical research and theory. It highlights and explains the shortcomings of theoretical frameworks and provides an explanation of high-frequency theory, emphasising ways in which to critically apply this knowledge within a financial context. Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data combines traditional and updated theories and applies them to real-world financial market situations. It will be a valuable and accessible resource for anyone wishing to understand quantitative analysis and modelling in current financial markets.
This is a guidebook about short term Operational Forecasting - the sort that is done to determine how much product you need to source or how many people you need to draft in to meet customer demand. It is organized under 5 headings: 1. The purpose of operational forecasting 2. Understanding demand 3. Forecasting methods 4. Understanding forecast performance 5. Managing forecast performance. The first two sections and part of section three are essential reading for anyone involved in or responsible for operational forecasting. The rest of the book is most helpful for practitioners. The aim is to produce something that provides a useful introduction to operational forecasting for both practitioners and their bosses by filling in the gap that lies between a naive common sense understanding of short term forecasting and the complex technicalities of mathematical forecasting techniques. The authors background as a self-taught business orientated forecasting nerd with limited mathematical expertise qualifies who tell it the way it is makes him well qualified to fill this gap. The book has been designed to be simple but not simplistic, using short and to the point learning points supported by clear graphics. It is technically sound but also highly practical. The hope is that it will help create a common language to help people talk intelligently about forecasting and help stop people doing dumb stuff - which is where most of the potential for improvement lies. It will also help people design good forecast processes and informed software purchasing decisions. In doing so it will help people realize that forecasting is important and that investing in people as well as software will generate enormous benefits for many businesses.
The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.
Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. How had our models so utterly failed us? Virtually every day, we make wagers on the future - but, even when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control, the maps by which we are steering are often out-of-date. The Map and the Territory is an important attempt to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies, offering a lucid and empirical grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't.
Mexico making a bid for global supremacy? Poland becoming America's closest ally? World War III taking place in space? It might sound fantastic but all these things can happen. In "The Next 100 Years", George Friedman, author of the huge bestseller "America's Secret War" offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the 21st century. He predicts where and why future wars will erupt, and how they will be fought; which nations will gain and lose economic and political power; and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
"This is a definitive, excellent book on Elliott, and I recommend it to all who have an interest in the Wave Principle." Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.
It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. 'Good enough' forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.
Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, "Future Ready" leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast?What period should a forecast cover?How frequently should it be updated?What information should it contain?What is the best way to produce a forecast?How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?How should a forecast be used?How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?How accurate does it need to be?How should you deal with risk and uncertaintyWhat is the best way to organize a forecast process?Do you need multiple forecasts?What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?
"Future Ready" is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.
Praise for "Future Ready"
"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting
"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory
in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love
from page one"
"A timely addition to the growing research on management
planning and performance measurement."
"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the
Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software s predictions, and even more advanced power user techniques for the software itself but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software s output Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after missing piece in forecasting reference.
As Singapore enters its 50th year of independence, it is a time for introspection to look back at the successes and challenges of the past, but is also a crucial time to consider what the future holds for the nation.Singapore 2065: Leading Insights on Economy and Environment from 50 Singapore Icons and Beyond is one such key contribution to the endeavour of thinking about what lies ahead. While many forthcoming projects and books take a more retrospective approach reflecting upon Singapore's past, this book adopts a forward-looking perspective, contemplating Singapore's distant future, which is important for posterity. This book is a collection of key insights from 50 iconic individuals of Singapore and beyond, and contains reasoned arguments, speculations and visionary expectations of Singapore's future in 50 years' time.The book discusses the distant future of Singapore's economy and the environment. What will Singapore's economic and environment landscape be like 50 years from now? Are there trends or scenarios common to the various discussions contained in this book? If there are, how big would be the impact of some of these trends? What and how should the government respond to these projections, expectations and informed visions of tomorrow? In sum, what would Singapore's economy and environment be like in 2065? The book explores a range of possible answers to these questions and more.Not only will the generations of today be able to gain much insight into Singapore's future by reading this book, but future generations, specifically 100 years after Singapore's independence, will be able to understand and affirm what and how today's generations think about their time. The book is a key contribution to envisioning Singapore's future, which is also vital for understanding what shapes Singapore's landscape today.
This Handbook provides an authoritative and in-depth overview of the essential topics related to the increasingly important field of choice modelling: a key tool for the understanding of behaviour and used to support decision-making across many areas such as transportation, health economics, environmental analysis and marketing. The Handbook of Choice Modelling, composed of contributions from senior figures in the field, summarizes the essential analytical techniques and discusses the key current research issues. The book opens with Nobel Laureate Daniel McFadden calling for deeper engagement with more behavioural and psychological fields, and this is followed by supporting chapters on behavioural economics and mathematical psychology. Further chapters explore the elicitation of data and the context of observation; inter-personal variation; the modelling of complex choice processes taking account of heterogeneity; extending the models to deal with more complex choices; statistical processes for the understanding of data; and finally the practical application of these methods. A final group of chapters discusses the research needs of specific application areas. Offering a unique collection of contributions from many of the top researchers in choice modelling, this Handbook provides essential reading for academics, students and practitioners in a wide range of areas.
An eminent economist warns that Western nations' economic expectations for the future are way out of sync with the realities of economic stagnation and stringent steps will be required to avoid massive political and economic upheaval. "It is alarmingly difficult to disagree with Stephen King. All one can say, perhaps, is that one of the great errors of human nature--strongly displayed before the credit crunch--is the belief that a prevailing trend will continue indefinitely. The crunch is surely a reminder that what goes up must come down."--Charles Moore, Daily Telegraph "[King] is dabbling in the financial equivalent of the horror genre. Perhaps even scarier, his is the stuff of nonfiction."--Michael J. Casey, Wall Street Journal
Whether it's an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or a washout summer that threatens to ruin a holiday in the sun, forecasts are part and parcel of our everyday lives. We rely wholeheartedly on them, and become outraged when things don't go exactly to plan. But should we really put so much trust in predictions? Perhaps gut instincts can trump years of methodically compiled expert knowledge? And when exactly is a forecast not a forecast? Forewarned will answer all of these intriguing questions, and many more. Packed with fun anecdotes and startling facts, Forewarned is a myth-busting guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. It lays out the many ways forecasting can help us make better decisions in an unpredictable modern world, and reveals when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.
This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently - at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly - depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
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