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Explaining Cameron's Comeback uses expert analyses of hundreds of surveys and focus groups run by Ipsos MORI to make sense of the 2015 election campaign from the voters perspective: What we really thought of Cameron and Miliband; how Dave won and why Ed did not; why it made sense to go negative; and why the pundits read the polls wrong. They also show what the 2015 election result means for the next five years of British politics, from the European Referendum and Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party, to the implications for the 2020 election.
In the months before the 2015 election, Lord Ashcroft Polls conducted focus groups all over the country to find out whether the parties' frenetic campaigning was having any effect on the people it was supposed to impress: undecided voters in marginal seats. The reports, collected here for the first time, show what was going on behind the polling numbers - what people made of the stunts, scandals and mishaps, as well as the policies, plans and promises that constitute the race to Number Ten. As well as shedding light on voters' hopes and fears, the book asks crucial questions: which party leader is like a Chihuahua in a handbag? Which cartoon character does David Cameron most resemble? What would Ed Miliband do on a free Friday night? And is Nigel Farage more like Johnny Rotten or the Wurzels?
Fox hunting with Godfrey Bloom; lunching on expenses with Janice Atkinson;talking 'shock and awful' campaign tactics with Douglas Carswell - nothingis off the table when you're on the trail of UKlP's People's Army.Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72 meets Louis Theroux, FollowingFarage recounts one hack's journey as he follows, drinks with, laughs atand even occasionally defends the phenomenon that is the United Kingdomlndependence Party as it prepares to march upon Westminster.With exclusive interviews and unfettered access to all the disgracedgenerals, trusty foot soldiers, deserters and dissenters who make up itsranks, Bennett delivers the inside scoop on what makes the People's Armytick - all the while making the transition from elbowed-out hanger-on tothe journalist Farage calls for an honest, post-election run-down of events.From the initial skirmishes and battle plans (the successful and thescuppered) to the explosive events of the battle for No. 10 itself -and the all-out civil war that broke out in its aftermath - FollowingFarage leaves no stone unturned, avenue untrod or pint undrunkin its quest for the truth about Britain's newest and mostcontroversial political force.
This book is framed by four over-arching narratives of inquiry. While all four are firmly anchored in Australia's political milieu - and as such are of considerable interest to a range of actors therein (scholars and students, the media, the political class) - they will also be of interest to a global audience. First, ideation. More specifically, what is the nature of populist politics in Australia, why does it consistently resonate with particular electoral demographics, what is the basis of its appeal over and above electoral cycles, and how should we position it in relation to more familiar concepts such as democracy, nationalism and progressive-conservative politics? Second, election. Despite the disparaging tone that the mainstream media can sometimes adopt when discussing electoral outcomes for right-populism and Hanson in particular, why does right-populism consistently resonate with particular electoral demographics, characterized by various criteria - geographic, social class, gender? How does populism play out in electoral cycles, and how do mainstream political parties capitalize on it for political gain? Third, policy and politics. Much to the disappointment of many, right-populism in Australia generally and PHONP in particular has been influential in policy formulation across a range of domains. These include Indigenous policy and reconciliation, immigration and international relations, industry policy, and the politics of gender. Taking a broader perspective, how does the resurgence of right-populism in Australia today differ from two decades ago, and is the polity, generally speaking, shifting to the right? Fourth, Australia's right-populism from a comparative international perspective. More specifically, what are the similarities and differences between right-populism in Australia on the one hand and in Europe and the US on the other, and are we justified in concluding, however tentatively, that the rise of right-populism is similar across these polities?
The third in Bedfordshire Historical Record Society's series of poll books covers the years from the fall of Walpole to the rise of William Pitt the younger. It was a period when Britain was constantly at war, when it suffered a dangerous Jacobite rebellion and when the American colonies were lost. Yet this constant warfare did not produce the revolutionary changes to the national and local economy that the Napoleonic wars subsequently created. There is only one complete poll book for the county (1774) but surviving lists from Bedford borough, including a partial poll book of 1747, enable political allegiance to be gauged. Lack of contested elections does not mean an absence of political activity. Detectable trends are illustrated from the Duke of Bedford's archives and the Hardwicke manuscripts in the British Library. They include the attempts of the Duke to increase his power, which was successfully challenged in Bedford Borough by the creation in 1769 of many new out-of-town freemen to detach it from his influence; the decline of formerly prominent political families; and, from the 1760s, the rise of the Whitbreads. The volume also details the political dimension of the legal cases about the appointment of the rector of St John's, Bedford; the administration of the Harpur Trust; and turnpike and enclosure acts. JAMES COLLETT-WHITE is an archivist at Bedfordshire and Luton Archives and Records Service, and to Sir Samuel Whitbread.
CBS News' Elections and Surveys Director Anthony Salvanto takes you behind the scenes of polling to show you how to think about who we are and where we're headed as a nation. As Elections and Surveys Director for CBS News, it's Anthony Salvanto's job to understand you-what you think and how you vote. He's the person behind so many of the poll numbers you see today, making the winner calls on election nights and surveying thousands of Americans. In Where Did You Get This Number? A Pollster's Guide to Making Sense of the World, Salvanto takes readers on a fast-paced, eye-opening tour through the world of polling and elections and what they really show about America today, beyond the who's-up-who's-down headlines and horse races. Salvanto is just the person to bring much-needed clarity in a time when divisions seem to run so deep. The language of polling may be numbers, but the stories it tells are about people. In this engaging insider's account, Salvanto demystifies jargon with plain language and answers readers' biggest questions about polling and pollsters. How can they talk to 1,000 people and know the country? How do they know the winner so fast? How do they decide what questions to ask? Why didn't they call you? Salvanto offers data-driven perspective on how Americans see the biggest issues of our time, from the surprising 2016 election, to the shocks of the financial crisis, the response to terrorism and the backlash against big money. He doesn't shy away from pointing out what's worked and what hasn't. Salvanto takes readers inside the CBS newsroom on Election Night 2016 and makes readers rethink conventional wisdom and punditry just in time for the 2018 midterms. He shows who really decides elections and why you should think about a poll differently from the forecasts popularized by Nate Silver and others. Where Did You Get This Number? is an essential resource for anyone interested in politics-and how to better measure and understand patterns of human behavior. For any American who wants to get a better read on what America is thinking, this book shows you how to make sense of it all.
The grainy black-and-white television ad shows a young girl in a flower-filled meadow, holding a daisy and plucking its petals, which she counts one by one. As the camera slowly zooms in on her eye, a man's solemn countdown replaces hers. At zero the little girl's eye is engulfed by an atomic mushroom cloud. As the inferno roils in the background, President Lyndon B. Johnson's voice intones, "These are the stakes -- to make a world in which all of God's children can live, or to go into the dark. We must either love each other, or we must die."
In this thought-provoking and highly readable book, Robert Mann provides a concise, engaging study of the "Daisy Girl" ad, widely acknowledged as the most important and memorable political ad in American history. Commissioned by Johnson's campaign and aired only once during Johnson's 1964 presidential contest against Barry Goldwater, it remains an iconic piece of electoral propaganda, intertwining cold war fears of nuclear annihilation with the increasingly savvy world of media and advertising. Mann presents a nuanced view of how Johnson's campaign successfully cast Barry Goldwater as a radical too dangerous to control the nation's nuclear arsenal, a depiction that sparked immediate controversy across the United States.
Repeatedly analyzed in countless books and articles, the spot purportedly destroyed Goldwater's presidential campaign. Although that degree of impact on the Goldwater campaign is debatable, what is certain is that the ad ushered in a new era of political advertising using emotional appeals as a routine aspect of campaign strategy.
With Barack Obama's historic election in 2008, pundits proclaimed the Republicans as dead as the Whigs of yesteryear. Yet even as Democrats swooned, a small cadre of Republican operatives began plotting their comeback with a simple yet ingenious plan. These men had devised a way to take a tradition of dirty tricks-known to political insiders as "ratf**king"-to an unprecedented level. Flooding state races with a gold rush of dark money, the Republicans reshaped state legislatures where the power to redistrict is held. Reconstructing this previously untold story, David Daley examines the far-reaching effects of this programme, which has radically altered America's electoral map and created a firewall in the House. Ratf**ked pulls back the curtain on one of the greatest heists in American political history.
As Ben Fountain sees it, the United States is facing its third existential crisis. The first was the struggle over slavery, culminating in the Civil War. The second was the Great Depression, the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialised world, which brought about the New Deal. The third, is Donald Trump. But how will it end? Taking in America's love affair with firearms, celebrity culture, Russia, Obamacare, Hillary Clinton and, of course, Trump himself, Beautiful Country Burn Again explores how the United States reached a new crisis point and asks how America really can be great again.
Though the courts have been extremely active in interpreting the rules of the electoral game, this role is misunderstood and understudied-as, in many cases, are the rules themselves. Law and Election Politics illustrates how election laws and electoral politics are intertwined, analyzing the rules of the game and some of the most important-and most controversial-decisions the courts have made on a variety of election-related subjects. More than a typical law book that summarizes cases, Mathew Streb has assembled an outstanding group of scholars to place electoral laws and the courts` rulings on those laws in the context of electoral politics. They comprehensively cover the range of topics important to election law-campaign finance, political parties, campaigning, redistricting, judicial elections, the Internet, voting machines, voter identification, ballot access, and direct democracy. This is an essential resource both for students of the electoral process and scholars of election law and election reform.
Originally published in 1972, this edition includes expanded sections on class and voting and elites and participation in modern democracy. Many popular misconceptions - about the militancy of party activists, the relations between MPs and constituents, the role of TV and the fairness of the electoral system - are critically examined. Equally important is the review of representational theories, from Greek to Victorian, in the light of what we know today about the workings of Parliament, the role of pressure groups and the mixture of rational and irrational motives in human behaviour. A range of twentieth century critiques, including those of Robert Michels, Joseph Schumpeter, Robert Dahl and Peter Bachrach is presented. Wherever possible, British experience is compared with that of the USA, continental Europe or the Commonwealth.
"An impressionistic and often disturbing account of the 2016 presidential race . . . This book reveals the incremental nature of public displays of hatred, growing from harsh chants and bumper stickers to, say, an open and unmasked gathering of white supremacists in Charlottesville . . . [His] dispatches are bracing." --The Washington Post Named a Best Book of 2017 by The Coil When he agreed to cover the 2016 election season, journalist Jared Yates Sexton didn't know he was stepping into what would become--for both political parties--the most rageful and divisive political circus in U.S. history. His initial dispatches showed Democrats at war with their establishment, coming apart at the seams over the long-gestating ascendancy of Hillary Clinton and the upstart momentum of Bernie Sanders, whose grassroots campaign provoked uprisings of people desperate for change. Then, on June 14, Sexton attended a Donald Trump rally in Greensboro, North Carolina. One of the first journalists to witness these rallies and give mainstream readers an idea of the raw anger that occurred there, Sexton found himself in the center of a maelstrom. Following a series of tweets that saw his observations viewed well over 1 million times, his reporting was soon featured in The Washington Post, NPR, Bloomberg, and Mother Jones, and he would go on to write two pieces for The New York Times. Sexton gained more than 18,000 followers on Twitter in a matter of days, and received online harassments, campaigns to get him fired from his university professorship, and death threats that changed his life forever. The People Are Going to Rise Like the Waters Upon Your Shore is a firsthand account of the events that shaped the 2016 presidential election and the cultural forces that divided both parties and powered Donald Trump into the White House. Featuring in-the-field reports as well as deep analysis, Sexton's book is not just the story of the most unexpected and divisive election in modern political history. It is also a sobering chronicle of our democracy's political polarization--a result of our self-constructed, technologically assisted echo chambers. Like the works of Hunter S. Thompson and Norman Mailer--books that have paved the way for important narratives that shape how we perceive not only the politics of our time but also our way of life--The People Are Going to Rise Like the Waters Upon Your Shore is an instant classic, an authoritative depiction of a country struggling to make sense of itself.
Throughout the contest for the 2008 Democratic presidential
nomination, politicians and voters alike worried that the outcome
might depend on the preferences of unelected superdelegates. This
concern threw into relief the prevailing notion that--such
unusually competitive cases notwithstanding--people, rather than
parties, should and do control presidential nominations. But for
the past several decades, "The Party Decides" shows, unelected
insiders in both major parties have effectively selected candidates
long before citizens reached the ballot box.
One of the most important voices in contemporary American journalism - Independent Matt Taibbi is one of the few journalists in America who speaks truth to power - Bernie Sanders Matt Taibbi is the best polemic journalist in America - Felix Salmon NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER "The thing is, when you actually think about it, it's not funny. Given what's at stake, it's more like the opposite, like the first sign of the collapse of the United States as a global superpower. Twenty years from now, when we're all living like prehistory hominids and hunting rats with sticks, we'll probably look back at this moment as the beginning of the end." In this groundbreaking battery of dispatches from the heartland of America, Matt Taibbi tells the full story of the Trump phenomenon, from its tragi-comic beginnings to the apocalyptic election. Full of sharp, on-the-ground reporting and gallows humour, his incisive analysis goes beyond the bizarre and disturbing election to tell a wider story of the apparent collapse of American democracy. Taibbi saw the essential themes right from the start: the power of spectacle over truth; the end of a shared reality on the left and right; the nihilistic rebellion of the white working class; the death of the political establishment; and the emergence of a new, explicit form of white nationalism. From the thwarted Bernie Sanders insurgency to the aimless Hillary Clinton campaign, across the flailing media coverage and the trampled legacy of Obama, this is the story of ordinary voters forced to bear witness to the whole charade. At the centre of it all, "a bumbling train wreck of a candidate who belched and preened his way past a historically weak field" who, improbably, has taken control of the world's most powerful nation. This is essential and hilarious reading that explores how the new America understands itself, and about the future of the world just beyond the horizon.
This book is a political history of democratic elections in Poland from the first fully competitive parliamentary elections in 1991 to the unexpected, most recent election in 2007. Until now, there has been no equivalent study covering similar developments in this, or any other, post-communist country; this book fills the gap and provides a detailed electoral perspective on the trajectory of political development in the context of post-authoritarian change. It also provides an invaluable account of the evolution of electoral processes and institution-building in the context of democratic regime development. The major themes of the book centre on the complex, problematic development of Poland's political parties and the parties' failure to gain public support and win the confidence of the electorate. Frances Millard examines the failure of Polish elites; the lack of a stable party system and how elections have had a destabilizing effect, and she argues that the interaction of leadership volatility, party volatility, and electoral volatility have created uncertainty and undermined political parties as effective vehicles of representation. Poland is a large and important country, worthy of study in its own right, but equally many of the problems experienced are not unique to Poland; so this book also constitutes a comparative benchmark for analysis of democratic developments elsewhere.
Nearly 800 proposals have been made to amend or abolish the Electoral College, and its divisiveness raises many questions. What role do electors play in American democracy? How should they vote? Should the Electoral College exist at all? Much confusion surrounds this institution, in large part because of how the original Electoral College varies from its contemporary counterpart, the evolved Electoral College. This book helps readers to understand the distinction and how we got where we are today. Focusing on the controversial 2016 election, in which Trump received nearly three million fewer popular votes than Clinton, Representation and the Electoral College shows how the Electoral College acts on behalf of the American public and alters election outcomes. In exploring the origin, development, and practice of the Electoral College, this study also presents the most extensive analysis of presidential electors to date.
A repeat of the Florida debacle in the 2000 presidential election is the fear of every election administrator and scholar of U.S. elections. Despite the relatively complication-free 2008 election, we are working with fairly new federal legislation designed to ease election administration problems. The implementation of the Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA) raises the question, how effective have reforms been? Could another Florida happen? Helping America Vote is focused on the conflict between values of access and integrity in U.S. election administration. Kropf and Kimball examine both what was included in HAVA, and what was not. There are specific issues that the legislation de-emphasizes which the authors argue are important. Widespread agreement that voting equipment was a problem made technology the centerpiece of the legislation, and it has remedied a number of pressing concerns. But, there is still reason to be concerned about key aspects of electronic voting, ballot design, and the politics of partisan administrators. It takes a legitimacy crisis for serious election reforms to happen at the federal level, and seemingly, the crisis has passed. However, the risk is still very much present for the electoral process to fail. What are the implications for democracy when we attempt reform? Our lack of attention to ballots and administrative structures could cause another legitimacy crisis.
After Barack Obama 's historic 2008 victory, Democrats were riding high. But a number of tough fights on policy initiatives, coupled with an economy struggling to recover, put Democrats in a difficult position leading up to the 2010 congressional elections. With nearly all the electoral gains Democrats made during 2006 and 2008 now lost and the House returned to Republican control, this is one of the most dramatic shifts in congressional power in history
Examining a sample of congressional campaigns waged during this important election provides readers with an account of how Republicans were able to make such impressive gains and how Democrats were unable to stem this tide. Adkins and Dulio provide a clear explanation of the macro trends in this election cycle, followed by twelve in depth and fascinating case studies of House and Senate toss up races involving seats held by endangered Democratic incumbents. Framed by a common set of questions and topics so that they are singing the same song in different voices each chapter focuses on the micro-level effects active in the individual campaigns. Furthermore, the editors discuss how the 2010 cycle fits into the existing literature on campaigns and elections, conclusions about what we learned in 2010 by addressing these competitive states and districts, and speculation on what might be ahead in 2012.
In addition, the companion website provides instructors with useful teaching tools, including sample assignments and dynamic PowerPoint slides with graphs and videos.
For nearly 150 years, American women did not have the right to vote. On August 18, 1920, they won that right, when the 19th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified at last. To achieve that victory, some of the fiercest, most passionate women in history marched, protested, and sometimes even broke the law--for more than eight decades. From Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Cady Stanton, who founded the suffrage movement at the 1848 Seneca Falls Convention, to Sojourner Truth and her famous "Ain't I a Woman?" speech, to Alice Paul, arrested and force-fed in prison, this is the story of the American women's suffrage movement and the private lives that fueled its leaders' dedication. Votes for Women! explores suffragists' often powerful, sometimes difficult relationship with the intersecting temperance and abolition campaigns, and includes an unflinching look at some of the uglier moments in women's fight for the vote. By turns illuminating, harrowing, and empowering, Votes for Women! paints a vibrant picture of the women whose tireless battle still inspires political, human rights, and social justice activism.
First published in 1974, this study of British political culture provides a radical critique of contemporary theories of working class deference and voting patterns. Drawing not only on previously unpublished opinion poll data but also the evidence of his own surveys, the author provides convincing evidence for his reformulation of the deference and civility themes, which he sees in terms of a theory of social order in class stratified societies. Comparative data from other European countries support this approach. The book ends with some incisive comments on the implications of the revised class perspective for comparative political research and future studies of British political culture.
Some political observers dubbed the 2008 presidential campaign as 'the Facebook Election'. Barack Obama, in particular, employed social media such as blogs, Twitter, Flickr, Digg, YouTube, MySpace and Facebook to run a 'grassroots-style' campaign. The Obama campaign was keenly aware that voters, particularly the young, are not simply consumers of information, but conduits of information as well. They often replaced the professional filter of traditional media with a social one. Social media allowed candidates to do electronically what previously had to be done through shoe leather and phone banks: contact volunteers and donors, and schedule and promote events. The 2008 Election marked a new era where the candidates no longer had complete control over their campaign message. The individual viewer in a campaign crowd with a cell phone can record a candidate's gaffe, post it on YouTube or Flickr and within days millions will be gasping or guffawing. The traditional campaign, with its centralized power and planning, although not dead, now coexists with an unstructured digital democracy. New Media, Campaigning and the 2008 Facebook Election examines the way social media changed how candidates campaigned, how the media covered the election and how voters received information.
This book is based on a special issue of Mass Communication & Society.
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