In a country where agriculture and an agrarian population dominate,
the agricultural marketing system plays a pivotal role in
coordinating resources and channeling production and growth across
the different sectors of the economy. In the presence of a poorly
organized and inefficient marketing system, like in Ethiopia, the
population and the economy in general have no escape from
suffering. To address the crux of the problem, Ethiopia has given
an institutional solution by establishing the Ethiopia Commodity
Exchange with a vision to revolutionize the country's agriculture
through an efficient marketing system. This work tests the presence
of the weak-form market efficiency using three random walk tests:
the ADF, the Lo-MacKinlay variance ratio and the BDS tests. Being
the first work on market efficiency of the Exchange, the analysis
has mined important lessons to be learnt by the Exchange and the
many coming-soon exchanges in developing countries. This work has
also shed light on the diverse conclusions uncovered across time,
across commodities, across statistical techniques and across
countries in the Efficient Market Hypothesis literature.
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