Timberland ownership in the United States has changed dramatically
in the past several decades. Integrated forest products firms have
been divesting their timberlands, whereas timberland investment
management organizations (TIMOs) have been active acquirers.
Timberland return has three drivers, the biological growth, timber
price, and land price. Biological growth can be consistently
estimated, land price is correlated with inflation, while timber
price remains most unpredictable. The first part of this book
models and forecasts timber prices in 12 southern timber regions
via different time series models. The second part examines the
financial performance of private- and public-equity timberland
investments in the US using both parametric and nonparametric asset
ricing approaches. The last part investigates the option values of
investment, mothballing, reactivation, and abandonment in a
hypothetical southern pine plantation using the contingent claims
approach. The results can help investors better understand
commercial timberland assets in the US.
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