Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have
strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ
a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these
linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles.
Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global,
regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business
cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period
19602010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of
regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business
cycles especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in
intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative
importance of the global factor has declined over the same period.
In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the
emergence of regional business cycles.
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