This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for
monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model
described carefully the parameters of these markets and their
vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run
demand for oil and gas was price- inelastic, relatively
income-elastic, and was influenced by interest and exchange rates;
short-run supply was price-inelastic. Short-run price inelasticity
could be a source for high volatility in oil and gas prices, and
could confer to producers a temporary market power. Being
simultaneous and incorporating interest and exchange rates, the
model could be useful in short-term forecasting of oil and gas
outputs and prices under policy scenarios.
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