The business cycle is a complex phenomenon which attracts both
scientific and public interest. But what are the defining
characteristics of the business cycle? Is the business cycle
asymmetric or non-linear? What can be said about the occurrence of
turning points over time? This book gives an overview over the most
popular non-linear time series models and their main
characteristics and possible application to business cycle time
series. The basic ideas of testing, estimation and forecasting with
many references for further reading will be presented. Furthermore
the book outlines concepts for detecting non-linearity in a time
series. By fitting and accepting a special model, new insights in
understanding the structure of a time series can be gained. As an
empirical application and illustration we apply the presented
models to the three famous Ifo indicators: the Business Assessment,
the Business Expectations and the Business Climate. The book can be
understood as a starting point for own applications to empirical
business cycle analysis. It addresses financial analysts,
researchers, and anyone else who is interested in business cycle
analysis and non-linear time series concepts.
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